The data points that predict a $10k month

Hey there friend,

Most TikTok Shop affiliates are flying blind.

                      This is what most affiliates look like

They post videos, hope for the best, and wonder why their income is up and down like Snoopy in a dogfight.

They celebrate when a video finally hits over 10k views but can't figure out why it only made them $50 in commissions.

After analyzing the data from my own accounts and multiple students who've hit $10k+ months, I've identified the exact metrics that predict success.

These aren't opinions or theories. This is hard data from affiliates generating six figures annually.

If you want predictable income instead of random windfalls, you need to understand these numbers.

Metric #1: Product Click Rate (PCR)

This is the percentage of viewers who click on your product link.

Views matter for TikTok Shop, but only if they convert to clicks.

You need at least 10% of your viewers clicking through to the product page.

If you get 10,000 views and only 500 people click your product link, you have a 5% PCR. This video won't make money despite the high view count.

If you get 5,000 views and 600 people click through, you have a 12% PCR. This video will likely outperform the 10k view video in commissions.

PCR tells you if your high view counts are actually driving buying intent or just entertaining people who will never purchase.

I track this on every single video. A viral video with terrible PCR is worthless. A moderate video with high PCR is gold.

Metric #2: Sales Per 1,000 Views (SP1K)

This measures how many sales you generate for every 1,000 video views.

High-performing TikTok Shop content should generate 8-15 sales per 1,000 views.

If you're getting less than 5 sales per 1,000 views, your viral videos won't translate to significant income.

If you're getting more than 15 sales per 1,000 views, you've found a winning angle that you should replicate immediately across more videos.

This is why some of my 20k view videos make me more money than my 200k view videos.

Views are the fuel, but conversion rate is the engine.

Metric #3: Video Consistency Score (VCS)

This measures how many videos you post per week for your winning products.

Affiliates who hit $10k+ months post 15-25 videos per week consistently.

Not 15-25 random videos hoping one goes viral. 15-25 videos focused on their proven product to maximize their chances of multiple viral hits.

The TikTok algorithm rewards consistency. The more quality content you feed it, the more it pushes your videos to buying audiences.

One viral video per month won't build sustainable income.

Five viral videos per month will.

Metric #4: Product Lifecycle Position (PLP)

This tracks where your products are in their viral lifecycle.

Early Stage: Less than 50 affiliates promoting, under $10k daily revenue
Growth Stage: 50-200 affiliates, $10k-50k daily revenue
Maturity Stage: 200+ affiliates, $50k+ daily revenue
Decline Stage: Decreasing daily revenue, oversaturated

Your highest ROI comes from Early and Growth stage products where it's easier to go viral and dominate the space.

Most affiliates chase Maturity stage products because they see others going viral with them, but the competition makes it harder to break through.

I use tools like Kaldata to track exactly where each product sits in this lifecycle before I invest time creating content.

The $10k Month Formula

When you combine these metrics, you get a predictable formula for $10k months:

• 20+ videos per week (more shots at going viral)

• 10%+ average PCR across all videos (views that convert)

• 10+ sales per 1,000 views (efficient conversion)

• All content focused on Early/Growth stage products (less competition)

Most affiliates who struggle are weak in 2-3 of these areas.

They might go viral consistently but promote low-commission products.

Or they pick high-value products but can't get enough views to matter.

Or they get views and clicks but their conversion rates are terrible.

The affiliates making $10k+ months are strong across all five metrics.

How to Implement This

Create a simple spreadsheet tracking these numbers for every video you post.

After 30 days, you'll see clear patterns in what drives both views AND revenue.

Most people will discover they've been chasing the wrong type of viral content entirely.

Views matter, but only when combined with strong conversion metrics.

Start tracking the numbers that actually predict income, and your revenue will become as scalable as your view counts.

The difference between hoping for a good month and knowing you'll have one is understanding which videos make money, not just which ones get attention.

If you want help setting up tracking systems and identifying your current gaps across these five metrics, you can apply to work with me here. [link]

-Kade